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8.13.2012

GWDF2 Day 4 Death Fast - Slowing my Descent 800 cal per day, for now

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nDvey2a-6M

Rough Transcript:
Day 4 - Slowing my Descent  800 cal per day, for now

I'm tempted to say I screwed up but rather I manifest our screwup.  This is not a one-man job, no disrespect to anyone else's effort.  Coming up with a diagnosis and treatment plan that will avert environmental Armageddon is not a one-man job. I can do it. I have the aptitude.  I have done this kind of work my entire life, and I can do it alone.  But it at such a hideous, hideously, slow pace.   Faster than anyone, because I realize it needs to be done.  But so much slower than it needs to be done.

I don't know how many days it's going to take me to answer the question that I thought I had answered last week, which is fundamental to being able to articulate, and stand, and win; a maximum of 1.5° rise. 

I’m John Q, and if you don't understand what that means you need to watch that movie, John Q I'm not a heart surgeon but I am a dad, who's going to be buried by his son, I am not going to bury my son.

I'm smart and I'm determined and I have a background that enables me to do this, but there are still too many gaps in my fundamental understanding. 

See John Q.  See that movie.  See it see it tonight.  In that movie his coldhearted, bureaucratic, Dr. an administrator at least told him what was required to save his save his son – ‘your son needs a new heart, he needs it now, or he’s going to die.

Our bureaucrats, some of them told us the equivalence of this clarity up until Copenhagen, and now they've they've waffled for years since Copenhagen, with tons of un-actionable mealymouthed stuff coming out of them.  ‘Your son's gonna die!  Your sons gonna die!  Your sons gonna die! I do something!  Do something!  Do something!’   Do what!?  By when?! 

I don't intend to leave this life until I can leave a clear answer to that. I don't know if it's going to take me a couple more days, or another week or so; not to become a brain surgeon, not to become a heart surgeon. John Q didn’t become a heart surgeon.  But I need to know, based on the data that's out there, the Copenhagen Synthesis I now think is the document I think I should point people to, not the Copenhagen Diagnosis which is part of caving to the 2° C.  No.

I'm certain that 1.5° C maximum rise by 2100 is the avoidance of hell and high water but I need to check that against Romm’s book by the name “Hell and High Water;” by Hansen's work, by Mann’s work and by the Copenhagen Synthesis (not sure now), a PDF that I just found.  You should look at them as well.

I need some fundamental elements. I need to know how much additional carbon that enables us to emit how much additional CO2 that we can put the atmosphere without risking 1.5 degrees C.  I need to figure out where methane seepage fits, a few figures in there, pieces of this puzzle; but no one bothered pulling, pulling together. 

So, I've got to refigure the price per ton. I'm guessing that's the $240 but that's not good enough, guessing, that is. When enough of us died to get the proper argument on the table I need to give you a number. I need to get in the ballpark on what the wreckage costs per ton of carbon is.  Now I just did some wild figuring and came up with $11,000 per ton. I don't mean silly figuring out.  Real broad order of magnitude.  I think it was something like this is a currently a $70 trillion world economy, the next thousand generations makes it a 70,000 trillion dollar world economy; I figured something like 150 more billion tons of carbon that we could burn without breaking 1.5 degrees C; took 20% of a 70,000 trillion dollar economy for the next thousand years and figured we’re wrecking 20% of that, which is a conservative figure given the economist Nicholas Stern's work, where he figures initially we’re destroying 20% of world GDP, going up to 35% in the medium term, and worse from there; and came out with if we are destroying only 20% of the world economy, it is something like $11,000 per ton.  This is huge.  It's a hell of a lot more than $240 per ton, and I want to know what that is.  You need to know what that is, and I need to leave you with that. 

So going about 800 cal per day for another couple of days, for another couple of weeks, I don't know, but can't leave you without a clearer roadmap. All this will go into an update of Tracking Plan B, of “Global Warming's Death. Fast.

It continues to appear that what we have to accomplish is 6% decrease per year versus the current trendline to stay below 1.5° C.  It appears that Hansen continues to have the humanity, continues to have the balls to point us in the right direction.  But God bless him, and it isn't his job to know how to make the argument, to win the argument.

It's been my entire life doing such things. I see no one else doing it so I've got to leave you the other information on which you can stand and know whether policy is giving you that 6% decrease per year, how many tons of emissions, what's the maximum tonnage of coal that can be burned and still stay below 1.5 degrees C.  Oh, there are numbers out there for the maximums to stay below 2° C.  No.  2° C is Hell and High Water.  Two degrees C is the oceans that the reefs gone; a third to half the world's species gone; 6 foot sea level rise this century.  No.  That's crazy and I don't know whether I’ll have a breakthrough the next couple of days, or how long this is gonna take.

Watch for reports that I'll try and post soon that are the what I consider to be the pieces that we need to pull together, and help me, God dammit.  This isn't rocket science.  Its interpolation; it's good basic work; for God sake help me. 

Or tell me who's already done it.  But I need to know what the treatment plan is to save our children; our next 200 billion children; and I can't find it anywhere. I can't find anyone with enough humanity or clumsiness to stand up with a clarity that the doctor and administrator did in John Q, which means I got a try and fill that role for us.

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